Alright, how about this: Rank the fifteen most-vulnerable Democrats in the House for the upcoming 2010 elections, in order. Have at it!
97 thoughts on “House 2010: Most Vulnerable Dems”
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Alright, how about this: Rank the fifteen most-vulnerable Democrats in the House for the upcoming 2010 elections, in order. Have at it!
Comments are closed.
1. Walt Minnick ID-1
2. Bobby Bright AL-2
3. Frank Kratovil MD-1
4. Tom Periello VA-5
5. Glenn Nye VA-2
6. Parker Griffith AL-5
7. Betsy Markey CO-4
8. Mark Schauer MI-7
9. Steve Driehaus OH-1
10.Eric Massa NY-29
11.Mike Arcuri NY-24
12.Suzanne Kosmas FL-24
13.Mary Jo Kilroy OH-15
14.Travis Childers MS-1
15.Alan Grayson FL-8
1. Walt Minnick (ID-01)
2. Bobby Bright (AL-02)
3. Frank Kratovil (MD-01)
4. Parker Griffith (AL-05)
5. Travis Childers (MS-01)
6. Tom Periello (VA-05)
7. Eric Massa (NY-29)
8. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11)
9. Chet Edwards (TX-17)
10. Betsy Markey (CO-04)
11. Mike Arcuri (NY-24)
12. Mike McMahon (NY-13)
13. Alan Grayson (FL-08)
14. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
15. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)
This is how I see it now. Of course, this will likely change in the coming months as we find out GOP challenges, fundraising #s, voting records, approval ratings, and more.
Not surprisingly, all freshman.
Minnick ID 1
Nye VA 2
Perriello VA 5
Krotavil MD 1
Bright AL 2
Kosmos FL 24
Kilroy OH 15
Markey CO 4
Halvorson IL 11
Dahlkemper PA 3
1. Walt Minnick, ID-1
2. Frank Kratovil, MD-1
3. Bobby Bright, AL-2
4. Chet Edwards, TX-17
5. Steve Kagen, WI-8
6. Mike Arcuri, NY-24
7. Chris Carney, PA-10
8. Kathy Dahlkemper,PA-3
9. Dina Titus, NV-3
10.Parker Griffith, AL-5
11.Harry Mitchell, AZ-5
12.Tom Perriello, VA-5
13.Paul Kanjorski, PA-11
14.Jerry McNerney,CA-11
15.Allen Grayson,FL-8
Notes: Mitchell’s 53% is the low mark among Giffords, Mitchell, and Kirkpatrick. The plus is that McCain won’t be running for President. Minus that, he’s easy top 5.
Arcuri won easier than either Hall or Gillibrand in 2006 and did not have the monster fundraiser that faised Gillibrand. But he struggled badly.
Titus got only 47%. Otherwise, she’s a sharp politician.
Without the recount sore loser stuff, Perriello would be higher on the list.
Grayson may be able to contribute more to the House than any other freshman if he is allowed to pursue the bad contracts and insider deals. He could and should be a standout for the next 20 years a la the Golden Fleece awards of the past. His district is trending D.
I’ve got a lot of PAs listed. If Corbett is the juggernaut some expect (why?) it is justified. Carney has the toughest district of the newbies.
Chet Edwards 53% was a huge warning sign. McCain was on the ticket, not Bush.
1) Walt Minnick (ID-01)
2) Bobby Bright (AL-02)
3) Frank Kratovil (MD-01)
4) Tom Periello (VA-05)
5) Parker Griffith (AL-05)
6) Glenn Nye (VA-02)
7) Betsy Markey (CO-04)
8) Eric Massa (NY-29)
9) Harry Teague (NM-02)
10) Steve Driehaus (OH-01)
11) Travis Childers (MS-01)
12) Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
13) Alan Grayson (FL-08)
14) Kathleen Dahlkemper (PA-03)
15) Mark Schauer (MI-07)
Trouble with hitting most of your targets for two cycles is you run out of targets. Only Cao looks particularly appetizing here…
1) Joseph Cao (LA-02)
2) Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
3) Dave Reichert (WA-08)
4) Tom Rooney (FL-20)
5) Mark Kirk (IL-10)
6) Michelle Bachmann (MN-06)
7) Erik Paulson (MN-03)
8) Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
9) Thad McCotter (MI-11)
10) Don Young (AK-AL)
11) John Fleming (LA-04)
12) Bill Cassidy (LA-06)
13) Bill Posey (FL-15)
14) Blaine Leutkemayer (MO-09)
15) Christopher Lee (NY-26)
1) Walt Minnick ID-01
2) Bobby Bright AL-02
3) Frank Kratovil MD-01
4) Tom Periello VA-05
5) Dennis Moore KS-03
6) Parker Griffith AL-05
7) Betsy Markey CO-04
8) Paul Kanjorski PA-11
9) Mike Arcuri NY-24
10) Glenn Nye VA-02
11) Eric Massa NY-29
12) Chet Edwards TX-17
13) Dina Titus NV-03
14) Mark Schauer MI-07
15) Mary Jo Kilroy OH-15
The reason Dennis Moore is ranked no. 5 is due to a supposed retirement. If this is true, his seat is going to be a bitch to hold on to.
(1) Mimmick ID-01
(2) Kratovil MD-01
(3) Bright AL-02
(4) Perrillo VA-05
(5) Nye VA-02
(6) Griffith AL-05
(7) Markey CO-04
(8) Grayson Fl-08
(9) Kagen WI-08
(10) Moore KS-03 (retirement?)
(11) Massa (NY-29)
(12) Acuri (NY-24)
(13) Shea-Porter (NH-01) (if she runs for Gregg’s senate seat.
(14) Kanjorski (PA-11)
(15) Shuler (NC-11) (If he runs for Burr’s senate seat).
Depending on the mood of the South regarding Obama’s administration, I could also see guys like Jim Marshal1, Childers, Grayson, and Kissell becoming targets.
Probably gone:
1. Walt Minnick (ID-01) – defeated a lunatic
In real danger:
2. Bobby Bright (AL-02) – opponent weakened by primary
3. Tom Perriello (VA-05) – extremist opponent
4. Frank Kratovil (MD-01) – extremist opponent
5. Betsy Markey (CO-04) – extremist opponent
Will have to fight:
6. Glenn Nye (VA-02)
7. Mike Arcuri (NY-24) – incumbent defeated 3rd-tier GOP opponent by 4%
8. Eric Massa (NY-29) – opponent pulled two shotguns on his wife
9. Travis Childers (MS-01) – weak opponent
10. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03)
11. Mark Schauer (MI-07) – extremist opponent
Probably will survive:
12. Alan Grayson (FL-08) – huge shift in Dem registration
13. Harry Teague (NM-02) – good fit for district
14. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15) – defeated decent GOP candidate in swing district
15. Parker Griffith (AL-05) – weak GOP bench
What’s interesting is that most of these endangered Democrats most likely were elected in the first place only due to the flaws of their GOP opponents. Taking out those weak Republicans clears the way for a stronger GOP candidate in the next cycle. However, some of these are very strong candidates and good fits for their districts, so I actually think almost all of them will survive 2010. Childers and Arcuri are the only ones on my list who were elected prior to the 2008 general election.
Watch list:
Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) – Feeney was tied to Abramoff, but she still won by 16% in a GOP-leaning district
Bill Foster (IL-14) – re-elected easily but with Obama at top of ticket and against a weak opponent he already defeated
Jim Marshall (GA-08) – won by 14% in 2008 but by only 1% in 2006
Debbie Halvorson (IL-11) – won by 23% in 2008, but against a second-choice candidate
Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) – only Barletta could make it competitive, for some reason, and he could run again in 2010. Also, Kanjorski won with 72% in 2006 and only 52% in 2008. Barletta can’t be THAT appealing.
Not on my list:
Chris Carney (PA-10) – conservative enough for his district
Gary Peters (MI-09) – Detroit is in no mood for Republicans
Larry Kissell (NC-08) – won convincingly in 2008, moderate enough for the district
Steve Kagen (WI-08) – defeated state Speaker by healthy margin
Steve Driehaus (OH-01) – broad appeal
John Boccieri (OH-16) – broad appeal
Dennis Moore (KS-03) – always on everyone’s list because of the district’s PVI but never really in danger
Everyone else seems safe at this point, but anything can happen.
of the incumbent republicans. I invision many of the older guys will decide to hang ’em up again in 2010. I think there were about 20 or so retirements in 2008, and I can see this again.
Who thinks Bobby Bright will be just fine in 2008? I’m not sure I’d put him in the top 3 as so many, and maybe not in the top 5. Honestly, I know the district is extremely republican. But Bright strikes me as exactly the type of candidate who can easily hold an R+10 or worse deep south district as people like Gene Taylor and to a lesser extend Childers.
It seems to be the consensus that Minnick, Kratovil, Periello, Griffith, and maybe Bobby Bright are in big trouble. Still, these seats are still winnable if Obama’s numbers are in decent shape. Kratovil can hold the seat as long as he is smart and works hard, just as Chris Shays held CT-04 all those years. Griffith should be safe, as was his predecessor in the seat and because the GOP is actually pretty weak there, and Bright is a pretty popular figure and should hold on.
Others I’ve seen mentioned are Mike Arcuri and Paul Kanjorski, among others, who should be able to hold their seats easily. Arcuri was frankly pretty lazy up there in Utica, and since he survived a huge surprise he should do much better in the future. Kanjorski was lazy, but this time had to work hard and held on, and probably will stay in the seat until redistricting, when he (hopefully) retires. The Ohio and Michigan seats are solid blue for at least a short time, because of the GOP’s moronic movement against high-profile American manufacturing. I would not be surprised to pick up another Michigan seat next cycle, actually.
One thing to remember is which members were elected with the help of huge black turnout. Kissel, Nye, and Periello all better work hard to hold those seats.
Also, keep an eye on CT-04. Shays is gone and won’t return, but it’s quite possible that some rich Gold Coaster Republican shows up and hits Himes hard. Himes actually only won 3 cities in the district- Bridgeport, Norwalk, and Stamford. Minority turnout was key to his win, especially in Bridgeport. If he does not become especially popular or cannot deliver a large minority turnout, he may be in trouble. Though weak, CT’s GOP still has a large enough base and enough lying BS-artists to win an election here or there (see Joe Lieberman).
1. ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
2. AL-02 (Bobby Bright – D)
3. MD-01 (Frank Kratovil – D)
4. VA-05 (Tom Perriello – D)
5. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski – D)
6. OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy – D)
7. NY-29 (Eric Massa – D)
8. CO-04 (Betsy Markey – D)
9. PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper – D)
10. AL-05 (Parker Griffith – D)
11. NY-24 (Mike Arcuri – D)
12. MI-07 (Mark Schauer – D)
13. FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas – D)
14. MS-01 (Travis Childers – D)
15. GA-08 (Jim Marshall – D)
It seems like most top fives consist of Minnick, Kratovil, Bright, Periello and Betsy Markey. I tend to agree.
1. Walt Minnick – ID-1
2. Frank Kratovil – MD-1
3. Bobby Bright – AL-2
4. Tom Periello – VA-05
5. Betsy Markey – CO-04
6. Suzanne Kosmas – FL-24
7. Mark Schauer – MI-07
8. Mary Jo Kilroy – OH-15
9. Glenn Nye – VA-02
10. Parker Griffith – AL-5
11. Eric Massa – NY-29
12. Travis Childers – MS-1
13. Mike Arcuri – NY-24
(I think his close race was a wake-up call.)
14. Jim Marshall – GA-08
15. Chet Edwards – TX-17
I’m seeing Walt Minnick at #1 on almost all the lists (or maybe it even IS all?) Not unreasonable given how red that district is. But let’s not forget, while Bill Sali was bats**t crazy, he was the incumbent and he had no serious scandals (the worst I can think of is that his campaign office was in the 2nd district), and McCain carried the district by a wide margin. And for all that, Minnick won. Next time around there will be no presidential race at the top of the ticket, and the GOP primary is almost certain to be very crowded, which will likely play to Minnick’s advantage. And in the district that gave us not only Sali but also Helen Chenoweth and Steve Symms (not to mention Mr. Wide Stance), there’s a better-than-even chance that whoever does get the GOP nod will be yet another nutcase.
All I’m saying is, let’s not give Minnick up for a one-term wonder just yet.
There will be no Dem. loses in 2010…no one will be vulnerable
should probably be lower on the list. Her 2010 opponent will most likely be just as crazy as Musgrave, and as someone who lives in CO-4, I can tell you that even if Bob Schaffer decides he wants his old seat back, he has worn out his welcome with his back to back statewide losses, and he didn’t carry the district in his senate run against Udall. Combine that with Markey’s image as a moderate and Colorado’s changing demographics, and I think she will be tough (but not impossible) to beat.